本篇paper代写- Financial contagion from the us subprime mortgage crisis讨论了美国次贷危机的金融传染。金融传染,指的是由于金融市场自身特征及市场主体行为所导致的危机通过金融关联向其它国家的传染,其传染途径主要为资本市场及货币市场等金融渠道。由于经济全球化浪潮日益凶猛,各国经济波动的同步性和全球化成为金融危机像国际传导的助推器和放大器。本篇paper代写由51due代写平台整理,供大家参考阅读。
From the beginning of 2001, the fed's monetary policy began to shift from interest rate hike to interest rate reduction. By June 2003, the federal funds rate had been cut 13 times, to 1%. The corresponding real estate market loan interest rate also declined in the same period. Continued low interest rates and easy and active lending conditions have greatly stimulated the development and prosperity of the real estate market, a superior condition that has also encouraged investors to seek higher-yielding instruments, leading to increased demand for securitization. Since June 2004, the fed has raised the federal funds rate 13 times in a row, from 1% to 4.25%. By August 2006, the federal funds rate had risen to 5.25%, raising borrowing costs in the housing market, driving down prices and increasing the risk of mortgage defaults. When the house price drops, the collateral value is no longer sufficient, and the lender's income is not high. Facing the situation of loan default and the house being recovered by the bank, the mortgage provider's bad debts are increased, the mortgage provider's bankruptcy case is increased, and the systemic risk of financial market is increased. Interest rise, bring about reimbursement pressure to increase, a lot of originally credit bad user feels reimbursement pressure is big, appear the possibility of default, the crisis that causes effect to the retraction of bank loan.
Subprime loans accounted for a small amount, but the damage was great. The reason was that the American financial market had great functions, and it used various financial derivatives to expand the unrestrained credit expansion of subprime loans, thus amplifying the damage effect of subprime loans. With the development of modern financial market, structured financial products have gradually become a kind of important investment instruments that are widely concerned by investors. In the face of strong market demand, investment Banks and other institutions on subprime layers of packaging products, the different time, different credit rating of the securitization of subprime mortgage products and packaging sales for a particular purpose which has the function of risk isolation mechanism, and public offering by the institution based on bonds backed by assets, and use the CRT transfer risk to investors in the end.
Financial contagion refers to the crisis caused by the characteristics of the financial market and the behavior of market subjects, which is transmitted to other countries through financial links. Due to the increasingly fierce wave of economic globalization, the synchronization of economic fluctuations and globalization become the booster and amplifier of financial crisis like international transmission.
After the outbreak of the subprime loan crisis, the financial markets of developed countries, such as Europe and Japan, were the first to be affected. One of the important reasons is that the institutional investors in developed countries have developed relatively mature, with strong capital strength, cross-border investment and global asset allocation. In fact, investors in Japan, Europe and other countries have large amounts of U.S. assets, some of which are derivative products backed by subprime mortgages.
Recently, the Japanese government's economic data for the fourth quarter of 2008 showed a sharp deterioration in the Japanese economy. The direct impact of the financial crisis on Japan is shown in the following aspects: local Banks in Japan hold a higher proportion of sub-prime mortgage-related financial products than their own capital, and local Banks' business deteriorates as the value of such financial products declines.
The contagion effect was visible in the stock market as the sub-prime crisis caused the stock market to plunge in the United States, as well as in Japan.
In addition to the victims of Japan, again is Europe, the United States is the largest consumer market in Europe, in January 2009, the British HSBC, barclays, Germany's largest commercial bank, deutsche bank and face the danger of split German real estate mortgage bank financing, the Swiss bank announced in the us subprime crisis suffered huge losses of different level, banking is the bad news, led to the European stock market fluctuations.
And the United States there is a direct trade relationship in our country, the United States is China's biggest exporter, persistent trade surplus of our country's foreign exchange reserves, where the hold $140 million of assets, with the outbreak of the crisis, the substantial depreciation of the dollar, which suffered huge losses in our country, at present, the fed's fierce printing, liquidity to fill the gap, to our country economy caused the pressure of inflation.
In addition, the subprime mortgage crisis also poses great risks to the real economy of the United States, because the economy of the United States belongs to the consumption-led growth. When the credit crunch of commercial Banks and other financial institutions leads to the reduction of consumer credit, many consumers will reduce their consumption. According to the data released by the general administration of customs on July 10, 2008, China's trade surplus decreased by 20.16% in June compared with the same period last year, and the accumulated trade surplus this year decreased by 11.18% compared with the same period last year. China's exports to the European Union and emerging markets have also slowed as a slowdown in the us has trickled down to other countries.
In the context of economic globalization, when the economy is booming, financial institutions have a sensitive capital turnover, and countries pool financial resources and invest in each other to realize the optimal allocation of resources. When an economy is hit by unexpected shocks, when a country's financial institution is illiquid, it is bound to infect other countries with financial ties to it. In this way, the economy has become interdependent, so we should strengthen cooperation in responding to the crisis.
Banks' own capital needs to meet the requirements of the Basel accord, which can guarantee their liquidity. In addition, before making credit decisions, the bank can make risk analysis of the borrowing object and strengthen risk management, which can avoid potential risks.
Although credit derivative is an important instrument to transfer credit risk, it has many defects. Therefore, China should be cautious in developing innovative financial products.
Financial regulation in the United States is a "multi-pronged" system with multiple regulatory agencies and overlapping jurisdictions. The advantages of this financial supervision system are that it can improve the efficiency of the supervision departments and prevent the financial power from being too centralized, but its defects are also obvious, such as overlapping regulators and inconsistent financial regulations. Therefore, China should perfect and unify the financial regulations when drawing on the financial supervision of the United States, so as to make the supervision more effective.
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