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下面为大家整理一篇优秀的essay代写范文- Behavioral finance，供大家参考学习，这篇论文讨论了行为金融学。行为金融学是行为理论与金融分析相结合的研究方法与理论体系。它分析人的心理、行为以及情绪对人的金融决策、金融产品的价格以及金融市场发展趋势的影响。行为金融学并不能代替传统金融学，而是作为对传统金融工具的补充，行为金融学帮助人们了解投资者心理偏差是如何影响自己和他人的投资行为的，有助于投资者制定正确的投资策略，有效地规避投资风险，保证金融市场的健康运行。

Behavioral finance is a research method and theoretical system combining behavioral theory and financial analysis. It analyzes the influence of people's psychology, behavior and emotion on people's financial decision-making, the price of financial products and the development trend of financial market. Behavioral finance explains financial phenomena that cannot be explained by traditional financial theories by drawing on the research methods of psychology and the research results of psychology. The combination of this discipline not only improves the financial theory system, but also verifies the psychological theory from another perspective, opening a new channel for its application. Behavioral finance is not a substitute for the traditional finance, also did not diminish the value of traditional financial analysis tools, on the contrary, in addition to the traditional financial tools, behavioral finance to help people understand that "investors" psychological deviation affects the investment behavior of themselves and others, help investors make the right investment strategy, avoid investment risks effectively, ensure the health of the financial market operation.

Rational man hypothesis different with traditional financial theory and behavioral finance theory based on the investor's own information incomplete and limited computing power, put forward the "bounded rationality" hypothesis, and under this assumption, through the study found that: every real investors is not complete in the sense of rational man, its decision-making behavior is not the only obstacle to the external environment, more will be affected by the actions of their own inherent bias, the influence of the deviation exists in investors decision-making behavior in the process of cognition, emotion and will.

The behavior bias existing in the cognitive process mainly refers to heuristic bias. The so-called "heuristic bias" refers to that because it is impossible to collect and integrate all factors and phenomena, investors usually use simple or limited heuristics to make decisions. In other words, investors often make investment decisions according to the "rule of thumb". The investment decisions made on the basis of "heuristics" may be the correct conclusion, but if the missing factors and phenomena are important, the loss of information will lead to serious errors in judgment and estimation. Heuristic bias includes availability bias, representativeness bias, anchoring bias and adjustment bias.

Availability bias refers to that people tend to evaluate the probability of an object or event based on its availability in perception or memory, and those easy to be perceived or recalled are considered more likely to appear, and their subjective probability will be exaggerated. The frequency, neomorphism and vividness of the event stimulus also affect the degree of its availability, and thus the subjective probability in the individual's mind.

Representativeness bias refers to that people tend to classify uncertain events according to their similarity with a typical thing, and the more representative it is, the higher the probability of being judged as occurrence. For example, a securities analyst who successfully chooses four good stocks is considered talented because four successes are not representative of a mediocre analyst.

"Anchoring" refers to the tendency of people to associate the estimation of the future with the estimation of the past, that is, when people form the estimation, they often start from a certain value and then make "adjustments" to the value. For example, when predicting the stock price, investors tend to make a rough estimate of the stock price, i.e. anchor value, and then adjust it according to the further information to form a more ideal judgment. Psychological experimental evidence suggests that people's adjustment to "anchoring" is often insufficient, that is, people are too anchored to the initial value.

The behavioral bias in the emotional process is mainly overconfidence. "Overconfidence" refers to the tendency of people to overestimate their own judgment and decision-making ability in decision-making, and thus tend to ignore the possibility of decision-making errors caused by changes in objective circumstances. Psychological research shows that if people claim to be 90% sure of something, they are about 70% likely to succeed. This tendency to overconfidence can be partly attributed to two other cognitive biases: self-attribution and hindsight. The former refers to people's tendency to attribute their success in decision-making to their own talent, while the failure is attributed to bad luck rather than their own negligence. In this way, investors will be likely to become overconfident after making continuous gains on their investments. The latter is the tendency of people to believe they anticipated an event well before it happened. Psychological experiments have shown that most people can't remember exactly what they made before something happened after it happened. When comparing results with judgments, people tend to exaggerate their own accuracy and claim that they made correct judgments before it happened. The bias of hindsight can make people overconfident in their ability to predict the future.

The behavioral deviation in the process of will is mainly herd behavior. Herd behavior, also known as herd behavior, refers to the behavior that investors abandon their opinions, change their original attitude and adopt the same behavior as the majority of people under the pressure of the group.

Due to the existence of various biases, such as cognitive bias and emotional bias, investors eventually lead to pricing bias of different assets, which in turn affects investors' understanding and judgment of such assets. This process is the feedback mechanism. This mechanism is based on adaptive expectations, that feedback occurs because past price rises generate expectations of further price rises, or because price rises increase investor confidence. Shiller, a famous behavioral finance scholar, believes that this kind of feedback is mainly a response to the pattern of sustained price rises, rather than to sudden price rises. This interaction of stock prices with investor reactions is known as the feedback loop. When various external factors interact with investors' cognition and emotion to form expectations of the same direction, they will lead to systematic bias of all assets. This systematic pricing bias, he argues, is self-defeating by feedback mechanisms. In the securities market, once investors form a common sentiment, then, the initial price rise leads to a higher price rise, because of the increase of investor demand, the result of the initial price increase is fed back to the higher price. The second increase in prices was fed back to the third, and then back to the fourth -- a process also known as the bozo vicious cycle, self-fulfilling prophecies, a swarm effect or speculative bubble. This feedback loop is what forms the famous bull and bear markets throughout the stock market. The author USES figure 1 to describe the investor's decision-making behavior deviation and its feedback mechanism.

Any theory serves applications, and behavioral finance is no exception. The study of behavioral finance on the deviation of investors' decision-making behavior is of great significance for them to make correct investment strategies and to beat the market. Based on this theory, the investment strategy is based on the systematic psychological error caused by behavioral deviation. Psychological errors committed by investors lead to changes in the market's future profitability and the expectations of the company's earnings bias, and lead to mispricing of the stock prices of these companies. The discovery of systematic bias in investors' psychology is the basis for investors to gain profits, including the following five investment strategies:

Positive feedback trading strategy refers to the trading strategy formulated by investors according to the rule of feedback mechanism in behavioral finance theory. Speculators take advantage of feedback mechanisms to profit and deflect prices further. Some investment Banks, investment funds are using positive feedback trading strategies to profit. Soros, for example, described his investment strategy in 1987, and over the past 20 years he has traded not on the basis of an analysis of fundamentals but on expectations of how the public will behave in the future. Although this practice of taking bets and the introduction of "smart money" by professional securities firms that profit from insider information eventually brought their prices back down to base value, the initial institutional buying raised uninformed traders' expectations of future earnings, thus doubling the deviation of prices from value. Soros's investment strategy for real estate trusts in the late 1970s was similar.

A contrarian is an investment strategy that buys stocks that have done poorly in the past and sells those that have done well in the past for arbitrage. Since stock markets are often overreacted and underreacted, an overreaction correction can lead to future outperformance of past losers above the market average, resulting in long-term outsized returns. Bunter and thaler's research suggests that such an investment strategy could yield an exceptional return of about 8 per cent a year. In this regard, behavioral finance theory believes that this is because investors tend to pay too much attention to the recent performance of listed companies in actual investment decisions, and use a simple strategy -- that is, simple extrapolation -- to predict the future of companies based on their recent performance. This results in a sustained overreaction to the company's recent performance, resulting in an overestimation of the share price of the company with poor performance and an overestimation of the share price of the company with excellent performance, providing investors with the opportunity to arbitrage the reverse investment strategy.

Inertial trading strategy refers to the investment strategy of buying or selling stocks based on the analysis of the performance of stocks in a relatively short period of time. Rouvenhorst's study of 12 other countries confirmed the existence of the momentum effect, thus proving that the effect was not due to a misunderstanding caused by data sampling bias. There is obvious inertia effect in the Chinese market, and using the volatility of stocks in a certain period to adopt this strategy can be bought and sold to obtain the spread earnings.

When investors invest cash in stocks, they usually carry out the cash in batches according to the predetermined plan according to different prices in case of emergency, so as to achieve the strategy of avoiding the risk that one-time investment may cause, namely the cost averaging strategy. It is related to the limited rationality of investors, loss aversion and segmentation of thinking. Time diversification strategy refers to the strategy that the ability to bear the investment risk of stocks will decrease with the extension of investment term. Investors should invest a large proportion of their asset portfolio in stocks when they are young, and gradually reduce the proportion of stocks and increase the proportion of bonds as they get older. There are many similarities between the cost averaging strategy and the time dispersal strategy, both of which are widely adopted and popular among individual investors and institutional investors, while at the same time, they are criticized as the investment strategy with poor returns, which is obviously contrary to the expected utility maximization principle of modern financial theory.

Under the guidance of behavioral finance theory, investors pursue to go beyond the market and adopt investment strategies different from traditional investors to obtain excess returns. To that end, investors can do so in three ways: by trying to obtain information that is ahead of the market, especially unpublished information. Investors can form their unique information advantages by analyzing, weighing and judging various factors such as industries, industries, policies, regulations and related events and integrating various information. Choose to use more efficient models than other investors to process information. The more complex these models are, the better. The key is to be practical and effective. The cost concentration strategy is implemented by using psychological characteristics such as cognitive bias or anchoring effect of other investors. Under the influence of traditional investment concept of mean variance, ordinary investors pay attention to diversification of investment choices and time interval to disperse risks, so that they will not focus on investment when opportunities come, leading to the diversification of returns along with risks. Behavioral financial investors, after capturing the stocks whose market price was mispriced, take the lead to collect funds for concentrated investment to win greater returns.

From the 1980s until Daniel kahneman's behavioral economics was awarded the Nobel Prize in 2002, behavioral finance theory rose rapidly and presented a strong challenge to modern financial theory. It can be said that behavioral finance theory has become one of the most remarkable research topics in the field of financial theory. Of course, behavioral finance is far from a fully developed theory, and its ability to guide investment practices varies from time to time. Generally speaking, there is still a big gap between the theory and practice of behavioral finance, and it has not become the extensive and universal guidance theory of investment experts. There are two reasons. One is that behavioral finance theory itself is not fully mature; Second, using these theories to measure various psychological variables affecting prices, will encounter many operational difficulties. Of course, any theory is flawed, and no one and no investment strategy in financial markets can consistently earn excess returns. The behavioral finance investment strategy gives investors the possibility to beat the market, but never the guarantee to beat the market.

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