石油价格对全球经济的影响-代写英国Essay－r51due

英国essay论文精选范文：“石油价格对全球经济的影响”，这篇论文讨论了石油价格对全球经济的影响。最近几年，石油价格像节拍器一样呈现规律性的起伏，上涨，然后下降，如此反复多次。油价上涨不仅影响了人们的生活，而且也影响了经济的发展。石油价格的变化主要是供求变化，无论是供应还是需求的转变都会影响油价。因此，石油价格的变化对全球经济有着很大的影响。

In Recent year oil prices seem to have increased quite high. Oil price seems to be increasing with the regularity of a metronome. Over the past few years the price of oil has rise, dropped and raised again. As the price of gas increase the weight of my wallet get lighter. It is bad news for customers who have to pay more for it. Now a day everybody is raging over the price of gas being overly expensive. Being an owner of a vehicle I too am outraged by soaring gas prices, it's just ridiculous.

To some extent it may even be terrifying to people because of the overprice gas; No one can exactly predict when the problem will back to its normal state with all the uncertainties. Not only does rising gas price affect people but it also affects the economy as well. Oil prices change mainly with the change in supply and demand. Either a shift in supply or demand affects oil prices. Thus the change in oil prices has an effect to the global economy.

Oil prices remain a significant determinant of global economic performance. Overall oil price increase leads to a transfer of income from importing to exporting countries through a shift in the terms of trade. It also depends on the amount, which gas prices rise in response to an oil price increase, economy and the impact of higher prices on other forms of energy that compete with or for electricity that are created from oil and gas. As people would expect, the higher oil-prices increase and the longer higher prices remain, the larger the macroeconomic impact.

For net oil exporting countries, a price raise directly increases real national income through high export earnings, though part of this increase would be later make up for by losses from lower demand for exports which usually due to the economic recession experienced by trading partners. Difference effects, which result from real wage, price and structural inflexibility in the economy, add to the constant income effect. When the price of the oil increase it with lead to inflation increased input costs, lowering the needs of oil from other importing countries. Because of the unchangeable in government spending which make interest rates goes up, Tax revenues will decrease while the budget shortage increase.

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By turning down in earnings it will cause problem because increase in oil price will leads to more stress on the income levels. Workers salary along with the lesser demand will then lead to more short term unemployment. When oil price increases it will also affect the relationship with other countries and the exchange rate, involving trading. Countries that imports oil will have to face problem such as the effect in their balance payment and decrease pressure on exchange rate. As a result, imports become more expensive and exports less expensive, leading national income to increase.

The economic and energy goal is to have higher inflation, higher unemployment, lower exchange rates and lower real output also affects the overall force on the economy over the longer term. Overly contractionary monetary and fiscal policies to contain inflationary force could worsen the recessionary income and unemployment effects. On the other hand, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies can also delay the fall in income demanded by the increases in oil prices, stoke up inflationary pressures and worsen the impact of higher prices in the long run.

Ever since the first oil shock, OCED countries are still at risk to increase in oil prices. After the oil shock there has been a decline in oil quality and net oil import.Net imports fell by 14% while the amount of oil the OECD used to produce one dollar of real GDP divided between 1973 and 2006. However, the area still greatly relied on the needs of imported of oil, reaching to 56% in 2006. Only Canada, Denmark, Mexico, Norway and the United Kingdom are currently net exporting countries.

Oil imports are estimated to have cost the region as a whole over $360 billion in 2006 which is equal to around 1% of GDP. Since 2005 the yearly import bill has increased by about 30 %. In the short term OECD economic performance will have a lesser impact, however in the long term their impact is more limited. As a result of the rate of GDP growth, there was a drop in trade that forced a decrease in income during the first two years. Those in turn cause a significant decline in domestic consumption and investment.

Compare to the base case, the OECD GDP is decrease by 0.4% in 2005 and 2006.In all OECD region, As global trade in nonoil goods and services progress the lose start to get weaker in the following year. Throughout the whole five-year projection period, GDP is 0.3% lower on average. The shock of higher oil prices on the rate of inflation is clearer. The consumer price is on average 0.5% higher than in the base case over the five year projection period. In 2006 is when it has a great impact on the rate of inflation which causes it to fall dramatically. In recent development shows a clear correlation between oil price movements and short term changes in the inflation rate.

The economic impact of higher oil prices is deferent depending on OECD countries which mainly to which they are net importers of oil. Euro zone countries, which are base on oil imports therefore they are very reliant on oil import as a result they suffer the most in the short term. GDP losses in both Europe and Japan would also worsen budget shortage, which are already large close to 3% on average in the euro zone and 7% in Japan. The United States suffers the least, mainly because original production still meets over 40% of its oil needs.

Because of the horrible economic impact of higher oil prices, the effect is shown more obvious on oil importing developing countries than for OECD countries. As for the poorer country and country that are in debt, the economic impact on them would be more severe. In the beginning of IMF estimates, the drop in GDP would equal more than 1.5% after one year in those countries. The Sub Saharan African countries with more oil demanding and weak economies would have a greater decreased in GDP which would result of more than 3%. As with OECD countries, dollar exchange rates will stay the same in the base case.

Asia in which they imports most of their oil, would experience a 0.8% decrease in economic output and after one year of price raising, in the following year have shown on the GDP that The current account balance had weaken by 1% Some countries would suffer much more such as the Philippines would have lost 1.6% of its GDP in the year while the price rise, and India 1%. China's GDP would drop 0.8% and its current account remaining, which equal to around $45 billion in 2006, would drop by $6 billion in the first year. In the first year, Asia experienced its largest inflation because of increase in international oil prices the domestic oil price was affected. In 2007 the inflation rate in China and Thailand will increase about one percentage.

Latin America will have lesser effect therefore they would suffer less from the increase in oil prices than Asia because net oil imports into the region are a lot less. Economic growth in Latin America would be reduced by only 0.2 percentages. Because GDP of transition economies and Africa is net oil-exporting countries, their total will increase by 0.2 percentages. Since the economies of oil-importing developing countries in Asia and Africa is more reliant on imported oil they would accept the most from higher oil prices because their economies. In addition, energy intensive manufacturing generally in charge of a larger share of their GDP and energy is used less efficiently. On an average, oil importing developing countries use more than twice the oil to produce one unit of economic output as do developed countries.

Oil prices remain a significant macroeconomic variable. Higher prices may have a very significant damage on the economies of oil importing countries and on the global economy as a whole. The prices in 1999-2000 added to the slowdown in global economic motion, international trade and investment in 2000- 2001. Since then the rate of recovery is very low, Due to the increase of oil price. In the last two or three year the Global GDP has increase at least half a percentage higher, thus resulting in the price staying at mid level. Oil importing developing countries would suffer the most as their economies are more oil demanding and less able to face the financial chaos formed by the over price of oil cost.

The general economic conditions to the current use in prices are different to the previous oil price shocks. Because of the oil Prices is increasing it has caused uncertain economic revival, excess room and low inflation. Stronger competition in wholesale and retail markets is causing the firms to have a hard time trying to pass through higher energy output in higher prices of goods and services. Economic imbalances would worsen pressure to increase interest rates would expand and the current revival in business and consumer confidence would decrease so as a result they will be threatening the strength of the current recurring economic growth.

Instead of removing the problems involving the high increase in oil because the government policy won't allow it, they can try minimize the problem. As people can see, the cause of the oil price increasing will greatly effect many countries and people as well. It is impossible to know if this situation will get better or will it worsen as the years go by but we can only hope that it will get better soon and hope that it will not go out of control.

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